THE INVESTMENT QUESTION
What has the installed asset already demonstrated?
A mine’s average is not the same as its capability. The average reflects the operating system that management is currently able to reproduce. Repeatable best performance provides evidence of what the installed system has already achieved.
The difference is not automatically recoverable capacity. It is a reason to investigate before conventional expansion is approved:
• Is the system constraint stable and correctly identified?
• Are local targets interrupting end-to-end flow?
• Is protective capacity being removed in the name of efficiency?
• Do management and the board have the same operational explanation?
• What portion of the gap could be tested without a major capacity project?
ONE DE-IDENTIFIED OPERATING CASE
9,612 tonnes/day → 12,047 tonnes/day
Average production was 9,612 tonnes/day. The best three days averaged 14,136 tonnes/day. After the production flow was redesigned around the stable constraint, average output reached 12,047 tonnes/day—a 25% improvement without a conventional capacity-expansion project.
The gap to budget fell by 32%, and the operation finished within 7.3% of budget.
This case does not imply that every asset can reproduce the result or that the whole best-day gap is recoverable. It shows why demonstrated capability is relevant evidence in capital allocation and operating diligence.
What Stratflow gives an owner
1 — A more useful operating baseline
Separate the stable average, repeatable best performance, variability and budget. Do not treat one record day as capability.
2 — Constraint-level line of sight
Reconcile frontline operating reality, management reporting and board interpretation around the point that truly governs system output.
3 — A defensible value hypothesis
Estimate the portion of the gap that may be testable, then translate it into revenue, genuinely variable cost and EBITDA sensitivity.
4 — Governance that preserves the gain
Define buffers, decision rights, escalation rules and management routines so local optimisation does not destroy system flow.
How the work proceeds
STEP 1 — BEST-DAY DIAGNOSTIC
A browser-based first screen using daily production data. The calculation stays in the browser.
STEP 2 — CONFIDENTIAL ASSET DISCUSSION
A 20–30 minute discussion of the investment decision, operating evidence and what the screen does—and does not—show.
STEP 3 — OPERATING-VALUE SCREEN
A bounded review of production data, constraint behaviour, management routines and the evidence required for the next decision.
STEP 4 — CONTAINED OPERATING EXPERIMENT
Where the evidence supports it, test the flow and governance hypothesis in a defined operating area with explicit decision gates.
STEP 5 — ASSET OR PORTFOLIO APPLICATION
Scale only after the operating evidence and management ownership are established.
Who this is for
This approach is most useful when:
• an investment case depends on operating improvement
• an asset is missing budget despite credible people and extensive initiatives
• more fleet, plant or transformation capital is being considered
• the board receives accurate reports but the system-level explanation remains unresolved
• a previous improvement has not held
• an owner wants a contained test before committing to a wider programme
EVIDENCE DISCIPLINE
Stratflow’s historical intervention record includes improvements in the 10–40% range. This is context, not a forecast or guarantee. Outcomes depend on the asset, commodity, operating system, constraint, management environment and commercial conditions. The Best-Day Diagnostic is a screen, not a diagnosis. It does not assume the full demonstrated gap is recoverable.